The 2024 US Election: A Turning Point for the Middle East
- As the 2024 US presidential election draws near, we foresee a potential victory for former President Donald Trump. His return to the Oval Office could bring a mix of continuity and transformative shifts in America’s approach to the Middle East.
- With President Joe Biden stepping aside, Kamala Harris is poised to be the Democratic frontrunner. If she secures the presidency, her administration would likely maintain existing Middle East policies, ensuring stability and consistency in the region.
- The US is expected to continue its firm support for Israel’s quest for enhanced security. Trump is likely to urge Saudi Arabia to rekindle the normalization process with Israel, aiming to deepen diplomatic relations across the Middle East.
- Iran is expected to remain under US sanctions for the foreseeable future. Iran’s newly elected reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has prioritized easing tensions with the West and re-engaging in nuclear talks to seek relief from sanctions. However, his efforts could be hindered by the powerful hardline factions within Iran’s political landscape. Trump is anticipated to adopt a tough stance against any engagement with the Iranian regime and its allies.
Reviving “America First”
- Should Trump win, we anticipate a revival of the “America First” strategy, emphasizing strategic, bilateral alliances. A second Trump administration would likely draw down military involvement in the Middle East, redirecting focus toward perceived threats from China. This shift would involve expediting peace initiatives between Israel and its neighbors, fostering closer ties between Israel and Gulf Arab states, and taking a tough line on Iran. If Kamala Harris ascends to the presidency, her approach might echo Trump’s in several areas, particularly in her dealings with Israel and her efforts to stabilize the Middle East, while also seeking diplomatic engagement with Iran and strengthening relationships with Gulf Arab leaders.
Facing Multiple Conflicts
- By the time the new US president takes office in early 2025, we anticipate that Israel’s conflict with Hamas in Gaza will have largely subsided, with new leadership likely emerging in Israel under a center-right coalition. The international focus will then shift to providing humanitarian aid and rebuilding Gaza, addressing security and leadership challenges in Israel and the Palestinian territories, and countering the ongoing threat from Iran and its affiliated militias. The enduring conflict between Israel and Iran is expected to persist, predominantly through their long-standing “shadow war.”
Israel and the US will continue to be deeply vigilant regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence. Israel is expected to persist in its airstrikes on pro-Iranian targets in Lebanon and Syria, while also working to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program through unconventional methods, such as cyber-attacks and targeted assassinations of key security figures. The likelihood of a new conflict remains high, particularly given the intense standoff between Israel and Hizbullah, an Iranian-backed group, which is at significant risk of escalating swiftly. Meanwhile, US military forces in Syria and Iraq will remain vulnerable to attacks by Iranian-backed militias, Houthi rebels operating near Yemen’s coast, and the remnants of the Islamic State (IS) that still pose a threat across the region and its neighboring countries.
Strategic Military Reduction in the Middle East
Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming presidential election, the US will maintain a military presence in the Middle East. However, if Donald Trump returns to office, he would prioritize reducing US military involvement in the region as swiftly as possible. For an initial withdrawal to occur, the conflict in Gaza would need to deescalate, Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea would need to decrease, and the threats to US military personnel in Iraq, Jordan, and Syria would need to diminish. Trump would aim to withdraw US forces when conditions permit, shifting the focus to supporting regional security efforts from a less direct role. He would encourage the formation of strategically aligned regional alliances, primarily to counter the persistent threat from Iran and its proxies. This approach would allow the US to step back while still influencing the region’s security dynamics.
US-Israel Relations: A Strategic Partnership
Israel remains the cornerstone of US strategy in the Middle East, and the next president will continue to offer steadfast, though not unconditional, support. Under a potential Trump administration, the US is expected to adopt a strongly pro-Israel stance, with limited attention to the Palestinian cause. Any proposed two-state solution would likely impose significant restrictions on Palestinian sovereignty. Trump is likely to advocate for Israel’s extensive security control over a demilitarized Gaza Strip and West Bank. As with the Biden administration, Trump would fully back Israel diplomatically and militarily in any conflicts involving Iran and its proxies, including Hizbullah, Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The strategic and security relationship between Israel and the US would continue to thrive under Trump, with ongoing collaboration on regional security issues and substantial military aid. The military funding, which Biden increased from approximately $3.8 billion to $14 billion annually in response to Israel’s conflict with Hamas, would likely be maintained.
Revitalizing the Normalization Process
The incoming US president will aim to rekindle efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, though achieving this goal in the near term may prove challenging. Both Republicans and Democrats see the normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia as key to enhancing stability in the Middle East, countering Iran’s influence, and curbing the growing presence of China and Russia in the region. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states of Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait, which have yet to join the Abraham Accords—a historic agreement that normalized relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco—will likely face renewed pressure from a Trump administration to follow suit. Trump is expected to push for these normalization talks, offering commercial and security incentives to encourage a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, without a breakthrough between these two nations, the smaller GCC states are unlikely to change their stance, potentially straining their relationships with the US. Qatar, in particular, might face challenges under a new Trump administration due to its history of hosting radical Islamist groups and maintaining close ties with Iran.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by Trump in 2020, marked a significant milestone in Arab-Israeli relations, with Israel normalizing diplomatic ties with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. Sudan joined the declaration in 2021 following its removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism, though it has yet to finalize bilateral agreements with Israel. The Accords have significantly boosted trade and investment, particularly between Israel and the UAE, where bilateral trade soared from over $1 billion in 2021 to nearly $3 billion in 2023. Although Biden sought to build on the Accords to bring Israel and Saudi Arabia closer, the recent conflict in Gaza and Israel’s tightened security measures in the West Bank have complicated the normalization process, making future negotiations more difficult.
Strengthening US-Saudi Arabia Commercial and Security Ties
The US is determined to bolster its commercial and security relationships with Saudi Arabia as a strategic counterbalance to China and Russia’s growing influence in the Middle East. Under Trump, these ties would likely deepen, with a strong emphasis on enhancing commercial partnerships, though his administration would press much harder for Saudi-Israeli normalization while being more cautious about offering unconditional security guarantees. Central to Trump’s approach would be a significant increase in US arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
The Biden administration has already been in talks with Saudi Arabia, negotiating a bilateral agreement that promises closer commercial and security collaboration. This deal could grant Saudi Arabia access to advanced US weaponry, civilian nuclear technology, and cutting-edge innovations, alongside a security guarantee—essentially a commitment by the US to defend the kingdom if attacked. In exchange, Saudi Arabia would be expected to actively support the normalization process with Israel and limit its ties with China and Russia.
Saudi Arabia holds considerable leverage in these negotiations and is likely to push for US concessions, all the while hinting at closer ties with Iran and deeper commercial, diplomatic, and security cooperation with China and Russia. Should Trump take office, it is anticipated that he would lift the ban on offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia—a restriction imposed by Biden in 2021 due to concerns over Saudi airstrikes on civilian targets in Yemen. Moreover, US defense contractors would be poised to secure large-scale arms deals with Saudi Arabia, facilitated by a Trump administration.
US Sanctions on Iran: A Continued Pressure Strategy
US sanctions on Iran are expected to persist in the near to medium term, continuing to undermine Iran’s capacity to support elements and activities that conflict with US strategic interests in the Middle East. Iran’s expanding influence through its network of proxies, its ongoing conflict with Israel, growing stockpiles of enriched uranium, and closer ties with China, Russia, and North Korea will remain significant concerns for the US in the aftermath of the November presidential election.
Iran’s newly elected president, Mr. Pezeshkian, who is seen as a reformist, has prioritized easing tensions with the West and has committed to re-engaging in nuclear negotiations in hopes of lifting US sanctions. However, his efforts are likely to be constrained by the strong influence of hardline factions within Iran’s political landscape and the potential return of Trump to the White House. In 2018, then-President Trump withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, and reinstated sanctions as part of a “maximum pressure” strategy. Despite significant shifts in the global geopolitical landscape since then, the prospect of successful negotiations between a new Trump administration and Iran’s hardline regime appears dim.
The JCPOA faces numerous challenges, including Iran’s ongoing shadow conflict with Israel, its regional proxies’ activities, and its arms and missile sales to Russia. These complexities make it unlikely that the US will rejoin the nuclear deal in its current form. Negotiating a revised agreement would be a daunting and time-consuming task, and Trump is expected to have little interest in pursuing such negotiations. As a result, we anticipate that the majority of US sanctions will remain in place through 2025-2028.
Egypt-US Relations: Trump and Sisi
During Donald Trump’s first term, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi enjoyed unwavering support from the US. Trump saw Sisi as a stabilizing force in a region still grappling with the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring and Western military interventions in Libya. Despite Sisi’s authoritarian rule, which included constitutional changes that solidified his power, the US largely overlooked human rights abuses. While military aid was temporarily suspended in 2017 over these concerns, the decision was quickly reversed, with the aid being released in mid-2018 despite minimal progress on addressing US concerns.
Under Trump, the US prioritized Egypt’s role in countering regional Islamist groups and supporting Israel over domestic political reforms. This trend continued under President Biden, who, in 2023, approved $235 million in military aid to Egypt that had been withheld since 2021, despite little improvement in human rights conditions. The US’s annual military aid to Egypt remains substantial at $1.3 billion.
However, relations between Egypt and the US could face new challenges if Trump returns to the White House, especially in the wake of Israel’s conflict with Hamas. A key point of contention would likely be the terms of any future peace agreement over Gaza, particularly concerning Palestinian statehood, which Egypt strongly advocates. Trump’s unclear stance on post-war Gaza policy adds to the uncertainty. If Israel is given broad authority to set the terms of peace, and Palestinian sovereignty is dismissed, Egypt might find it politically difficult to engage in a constructive political solution.
Since the onset of the Gaza conflict, the Egyptian government has publicly criticized Israel to appease a pro-Palestinian domestic audience, while maintaining diplomatic ties with Israel, despite threats of downgrading these relations. Sisi’s primary goal is to secure a role in the post-war political settlement in Gaza and ensure continued US military support for Egypt. This delicate balancing act could become increasingly difficult if Egypt’s demands are ignored. Nevertheless, Egypt is likely to play a significant role in US plans for the reconstruction of Gaza, giving Cairo considerable leverage with a Trump administration that would likely continue to use military aid as its main tool of influence, with even less pressure on Sisi to pursue domestic political reforms.
Impact on Energy Markets
Middle Eastern energy producers are poised to gain from a moderate rise in oil prices in the near to medium term. This anticipated increase stems from a likely Trump administration promoting higher domestic oil and gas production by easing certain environmental and fuel-efficiency regulations. Trump’s policies are expected to de-emphasize support for green energy and renewable projects. As a result, the US would see a modest boost in oil production and a stronger uptick in oil demand. We forecast that crude oil prices will average around $82.90 per barrel in 2024-2025, driven by a tight market and geopolitical tensions, and are expected to stay above $70 per barrel through 2028.
Moreover, Trump’s policies would decelerate the US green transition and diminish the demand for critical minerals essential for green technologies. The market for these minerals was already weak due to oversupply and less-than-expected demand for electric vehicle battery materials. This slowdown could benefit Middle Eastern countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel, by reducing costs associated with their own green initiatives.
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Borderless Consulting Triumphs in Prestigious 2024 Awards Season
London, July 2nd 2024 – In a stellar demonstration of excellence and innovation, Borderless Consulting has been honored with five prestigious awards, solidifying its position as a global leader in business consultancy and recruitment services. The accolades, which include the esteemed titles of “Best Global Business Consultancy Firm 2024,” “SME Client Service Excellence Award 2024” by the Greater London Enterprise Awards, “Business Consultancy of the Year 2024” by the Corporate LiveWire Innovation & Excellence Awards, “Best Global Specialist Recruitment Consultancy 2024 – Dubai,” and “MEA Recruitment Client Service Excellence Award 2024” by MEA Markets, reflect the firm’s unwavering commitment to delivering unparalleled client services and pioneering business solutions.
The “Best Global Business Consultancy Firm 2024” award underscores Borderless Consulting’s exceptional ability to transcend geographical boundaries, providing world-class consultancy services that drive transformative results for clients around the globe. This recognition highlights the firm’s innovative strategies and deep understanding of global market dynamics, which have been instrumental in helping businesses achieve sustainable growth and competitive advantage.
The “SME Client Service Excellence Award 2024,” bestowed by the Greater London Enterprise Awards, is a testament to Borderless Consulting’s dedication to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This accolade celebrates the firm’s bespoke approach to client service, characterized by personalized strategies, meticulous attention to detail, and an unwavering commitment to helping SMEs navigate complex business landscapes. Borderless Consulting’s client-centric philosophy has not only fostered robust partnerships but has also empowered SMEs to realize their full potential.
Adding to its impressive accolades, Borderless Consulting has been named “Business Consultancy of the Year 2024” by the Corporate LiveWire Innovation & Excellence Awards. This distinguished honor recognizes the firm’s cutting-edge consultancy practices, innovative problem-solving techniques, and its role as a thought leader in the business consultancy sector. The award highlights Borderless Consulting’s ability to anticipate market trends, implement forward-thinking solutions, and drive excellence in all facets of business consultancy.
The “Best Global Specialist Recruitment Consultancy 2024 – Dubai” award underscores Borderless Consulting’s expertise in navigating the complexities of the global job market. Our dedicated team consistently goes above and beyond to match highly skilled professionals with organizations that require specialized talent, fostering growth and innovation within various industries.
In addition, the “MEA Recruitment Client Service Excellence Award 2024” recognizes our relentless focus on client satisfaction. At Borderless Consulting, we prioritize understanding our clients’ unique needs, providing tailored recruitment strategies that ensure the best fit for their organizational culture and business goals. This award reflects our dedication to building strong, lasting relationships with our clients through transparency, efficiency, and personalized service.
The confluence of these distinguished awards not only highlights Borderless Consulting’s exemplary performance in the business consultancy and recruitment domains but also reaffirms its status as a beacon of excellence and innovation. As the firm continues to set new benchmarks in the industry, clients can look forward to unparalleled expertise, cutting-edge solutions, and a relentless pursuit of excellence in every engagement.
We are immensely proud of these achievements and remain committed to setting new standards of excellence in the recruitment industry. These awards serve as a testament to the hard work and dedication of our team, and we look forward to continuing our mission of connecting exceptional talent with exceptional opportunities worldwide, these distinguished awards not only highlights Borderless Consulting’s exemplary performance in the business consultancy domain but also reaffirms its status as a beacon of excellence and innovation. As the firm continues to set new benchmarks in the industry, clients can look forward to unparalleled expertise, cutting-edge solutions, and a relentless pursuit of excellence in every engagement.
“We are profoundly honored to receive these prestigious awards,” said Julio Verissimo, President & CEO of Borderless Consulting. “These accolades are a testament to the hard work, dedication, and innovative spirit of our entire team. At Borderless Consulting, we are committed to pushing the boundaries of what is possible in business consultancy, and these recognitions inspire us to continue delivering exceptional value to our clients across the globe.”
About Borderless Consulting
Borderless Consulting is a premier global business consultancy firm renowned for its innovative strategies and client-centric approach. With a dedicated team of experts and a vast portfolio of successful projects, Borderless Consulting empowers businesses to achieve their strategic objectives and excel in a competitive global marketplace.
Founded with the vision to transcend geographical and cultural boundaries, Borderless Consulting has established itself as a trusted partner for businesses seeking to navigate the complexities of the modern economic landscape. Our holistic approach integrates deep industry insights with cutting-edge methodologies, ensuring that our clients receive tailored solutions that drive sustainable growth and long-term success.
At Borderless Consulting, our core philosophy is centered around three key pillars: Innovation, Excellence, and Partnership.
Innovation: We continuously strive to stay ahead of industry trends and leverage the latest technologies to deliver innovative solutions that address our clients’ unique challenges. Our team is comprised of forward-thinking professionals who are adept at identifying opportunities for improvement and implementing strategies that foster innovation and efficiency.
Excellence: Quality and excellence are at the heart of everything we do. Our rigorous approach to problem-solving and our commitment to delivering the highest standards of service ensure that our clients achieve their desired outcomes. We take pride in our meticulous attention to detail and our ability to deliver results that exceed expectations.
Partnership: We believe in building lasting relationships with our clients based on trust, transparency, and mutual respect. Our client-centric approach involves working closely with businesses to understand their specific needs and objectives, allowing us to develop customized strategies that align with their goals. By fostering strong partnerships, we help our clients navigate challenges and seize opportunities with confidence.
Our comprehensive suite of services spans across various sectors, including finance, technology, healthcare, and manufacturing. From strategic planning and market analysis to operational optimization and digital transformation, Borderless Consulting offers a wide array of services designed to address the multifaceted needs of our clients.
As a thought leader in the business consultancy field, Borderless Consulting is committed to contributing to the broader business community. We regularly publish insights and thought leadership articles that provide valuable perspectives on emerging trends and best practices. Our commitment to knowledge sharing underscores our dedication to driving progress and fostering a culture of continuous improvement within the industry.
With a global presence and a reputation for excellence, Borderless Consulting is uniquely positioned to help businesses achieve their strategic objectives. Our unwavering commitment to innovation, excellence, and partnership ensures that we remain at the forefront of the business consultancy sector, delivering unparalleled value to our clients.
For more information about Borderless Consulting and our award-winning services, please visit https://bodlsc.com or contact Borderless Consulting. on Medium Borderless Consulting Triumphs in Prestigious 2024 Awards Season
Indulge yourself in the mesmerizing world of Julio Verissimo Live Show, an extraordinary showcase of talent, passion, and artistic brilliance. This captivating event promises an unforgettable experience, inviting audiences to immerse themselves in a symphony of sights and sounds that transcend the ordinary.
At the heart of Julio Verissimo Live Show lies a dedication to excellence, where each performance is meticulously crafted to evoke emotion, ignite the imagination, and leave a lasting impression on all who witness it. From the stirring melodies of live music to the graceful movements of dance, every aspect of this show is infused with a sense of purpose and meaning.
Step into the virtual realm of Julio Verissimo Live, where innovation meets artistry in perfect harmony. Through cutting-edge technology and immersive visuals, audiences are transported to a world of boundless possibilities, where the limits of creativity are pushed to new heights.
But beyond its technical brilliance, Julio Verissimo Live Show embodies a deeper ethos—a commitment to fostering connection, fostering connection, and celebrating the rich tapestry of human experience. It is a testament to the power of art to unite, inspire, and uplift, transcending barriers of language, culture, and geography.
As you embark on this enchanting journey with Julio Verissimo Live Show, prepare to be moved, inspired, and transformed. Allow yourself to surrender to the magic of the moment, as you witness the extraordinary talents of Julio Verissimo and his ensemble cast. For in this wondrous spectacle, you will find not only entertainment but also a profound reminder of the beauty and wonder that abound in our world.
Experience Julio Verissimo Live Show and embark on a voyage of discovery, creativity, and wonder that will stay with you long after the final curtain falls. Join us as we celebrate the power of art to illuminate, uplift, and inspire the human spirit.
Furthermore, it is with great pleasure and excitement that I announce a new chapter in our journey of artistic collaboration. In a commitment to expand our reach and deepen our impact, we are proud to unveil our partnership with Hispanic Public Media and DW Hispanic in Mexico.
This collaboration represents a union of shared values and aspirations, as we collectively strive to promote cultural exchange, diversity, and inclusivity through the power of media and the arts. With a steadfast dedication to excellence and integrity, Hispanic Public Media and DW Hispanic in Mexico have established themselves as beacons of journalistic integrity and cultural enrichment, resonating with audiences across the globe.
By joining forces with these esteemed organizations, we aim to amplify our message and extend the reach of Julio Verissimo Live Show to even more audiences, both within the Hispanic community and beyond. Together, we will harness the transformative power of art and storytelling to foster understanding, empathy, and connection in an increasingly interconnected world.
This partnership heralds a new era of cooperation and collaboration, where diverse voices come together in harmony to celebrate our shared humanity and embrace the richness of our cultural heritage. Through joint initiatives, cross-promotional efforts, and collaborative projects, we will pave the way for greater synergy and mutual enrichment, creating opportunities for growth and innovation for all parties involved.
As we embark on this exciting journey together, I am filled with optimism and anticipation for the countless possibilities that lie ahead. Together with Hispanic Public Media and DW Hispanic in Mexico, we will continue to uphold the highest standards of excellence and strive to make a meaningful difference in the lives of our audiences, inspiring, enlightening, and empowering individuals across borders and boundaries.
I invite you to join us on this remarkable adventure as we embark on a shared mission to promote understanding, celebrate diversity, and build bridges of connection and cooperation that transcend language, culture, and geography. Together, we will write the next chapter in the story of Julio Verissimo Live Show—a story of collaboration, innovation, and boundless creativity.
Stay tuned for more updates and announcements as we embark on this exciting new journey together.
Visit https://liveshow.bodlsc.com/ and prepare to be dazzled by Julio Verissimo
“In the tapestry of cultural collaboration, our partnership with Hispanic Public Media and DW Hispanic in Mexico threads together with Julio Verissimo Live Show a vibrant narrative of unity, diversity, and shared vision. Together, we weave the fabric of understanding, bridging hearts and minds through the transformative power of art and storytelling.”
Julio Verissimo
President & CEO
Borderless Consulting
In case you missed latests podcasts
Continuing the odyssey on this podcast, “Exploring Montenegro’s Economic Resilience: Strategic Investments and Insights,” beckons with the promise of unraveling the secrets to prosperity in the face of adversity. Under the sage guidance of Julio Verissimo and the esteemed presence of special guest Arben Jakupi, we embark on a voyage through the intricacies of economic resilience. Together, we shall navigate the turbulent seas of uncertainty, armed with the wisdom of strategic investments and fortified by the resilience of the human spirit. Anticipation mounts as we eagerly await the revelation of the auspicious date for this enlightening discourse and be part of a community dedicated to shaping a brighter future. EconomicResilience #InvestmentStrategies #MontenegroEconomy #StrategicInsights #ProsperityPathways
Prepare to be captivated by the podcast, “Vision and Risk-Taking: Paving the Way to Environmental Sustainability,” where Julio Verissimo, our guiding beacon of wisdom, leads us on a transformative journey towards a greener tomorrow. Joined by the illustrious John Graham, we embark on an expedition of visionary thought, daring to challenge the status quo and pioneer solutions for a sustainable future. Let us unite in this noble endeavor, harnessing the power of collective insight to forge a path towards environmental stewardship that knows no bounds and become a catalyst for change.SustainabilityJourney. #EnvironmentalVisionaries #GreenFuture #EcoLeadership #SustainableSolutions
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We're teaming up with Hispanic Public Media and DW Hispanic MX to bring you an unforgettable experience! Join us as we embark on a journey of cultural collaboration and celebration through Julio Verissimo Live. Stay tuned https://t.co/hbXNKaYoGD
— Julio Verissimo (@Julio_Verissimo) May 5, 2024